Geopolitical risk reprices hotel stocks faster than any demand cycle. These four names show exactly how, and how much.
When the US–Iran war broke out on February 28, travel stocks were among the first to feel the pressure. Higher crude prices, disrupted Gulf airspace, flight rerouting, weaker international sentiment and delayed travel plans pushed tourism and hotel stocks down during the conflict.
Following the announcement of the peace deal on June 15, however, they rallied almost immediately. With the deal implying the resuming of international oil and shipping traffic, the Nifty India Tourism Index rose as much as 3.36%, moving from its previous close of 7,443.70 to an intraday high of 7,693.75. It eventually closed at 7,633.10, up 189.40 points or 2.54%, with every constituent of the index gaining during the session.
Within hospitality, the recovery was uneven. We tracked NSE listed major Indian hotel operators across three points:
The February 27 closing price as the pre-war baseline
The lowest price during the conflict window as the war-period trough,
The June 19 closing price as the post-deal benchmark.
The ranking below identifies the two hotel stocks that recovered the strongest after the peace deal and the two that remained furthest below their pre-war levels.
Winner 1: Leela Palaces (+8.96%)
Leela delivered the strongest net recovery from the February 27 baseline. The stock fell 13.24% during the conflict, from ₹453.55 to ₹393.50, but recovered to ₹494.20 by June 19. That left it 8.96% above its pre-war level.
Its immediate recovery was also the strongest as it rose 8.7% on June 15, the sharpest single-day gain among the hotel stocks tracked. Luxury hotel demand depends on confidence. When geopolitical risk rises, people delay expensive trips, weddings, events and premium experiences. Once the peace deal reduced that concern, Leela’s premium positioning became a direct beneficiary of the shift in sentiment.
Leela’s own numbers also supported the rebound. FY2025–26 was its strongest year on record, with PAT rising nearly 8.5x to ₹403 crore. Its RevPAR (revenue per available room) index ranking improved to 150 from 139 in FY25, showing market-share gains in luxury hospitality.
The company also gained visibility by adding 966 rooms across Mumbai, Dubai, Jaisalmer and Coorg. In a market where luxury hotel supply remains limited and affluent travel demand is rising, that pipeline strengthened the case for continued luxury-led growth after the peace deal.
Winner 2: Indian Hotels Company Ltd. ( +8.65%)
IHCL recovered strongly because its scale helped sustain investor confidence. From a pre-war close of ₹667.05, the stock fell 14.41% to ₹570.95 during the conflict. Its June 15 gain was smaller than Leela’s, but the stock kept rising through the week and reached ₹724.75 by June 19. That put IHCL 8.65% above its February 27 baseline.
IHCL’s recovery was supported by its demand mix. Its portfolio spans Taj, Vivanta, Ginger and SeleQtions, giving it exposure across luxury, upscale, business and mid-market demand. During a geopolitical shock, that matters because the company is not dependent on one travel segment. When international sentiment weakens, domestic-facing and midscale demand can still support occupancy.
Its FY2025–26 results strengthened that case with a reported revenue of ₹9,971 crore (up by 16%), EBITDA of ₹3,477 crore and PAT of ₹2,084 crore. Management also described it as the company’s sixteenth consecutive record quarter despite macro and geopolitical headwinds.
IHCL also had visible credit support. In February 2026, ICRA reaffirmed its long-term rating at [ICRA]AA+ (Stable) and short-term rating at [ICRA]A1+, citing strong liquidity, comfortable capital structure and Tata Group parentage. This gave investors another reason to trust the stock’s recovery after the peace deal.
Loser 1: Royal Orchid Hotels ( −8.89%)
Royal Orchid’s recovery did not repair the conflict-period fall. The stock started at ₹362.40, dropped 25.14% to ₹271.30, and recovered only to ₹330.20 by June 19. It remained 8.89% below its February 27 baseline.
Royal Orchid’s weak recovery came despite rapid expansion. Reuters reported that the company planned to add at least 50 hotels over the next 12 to 18 months, taking room inventory from around 8,000 to 11,000 by the end of 2027. The concern here was profit conversion. Business Standard reported that Q4 FY26 consolidated net profit fell 39.57% year-on-year to ₹7.94 crore, even as revenue from operations rose 30.47% to ₹113.17 crore.
Investors could see the expansion pipeline, but the latest profit print made them cautious about how quickly room growth would translate into earnings.
Loser 2: Kamat Hotels (India) Ltd (−8.67%)
Kamat Hotels’ recovery was held back by earlier earnings pressure and rising finance costs. The stock fell 23.61% from ₹187.27 to ₹143.06 during the conflict. By June 19, it had recovered to ₹171.04, but remained 8.67% below its February 27 baseline.
Interestingly, Kamat’s latest quarter was quite profitable. Tickertape reported that Q4 FY26 net profit rose 49.14% year-on-year to ₹16.39 crore, while sales rose 19.20% to ₹110.12 crore. Business Standard’s quarterly-results page showed a similar profit figure, with net profit at ₹17.46 crore.
The stock, however, was already under pressure before the peace-deal recovery. Univest said Kamat Hotels’ share price had fallen sharply in 2026, citing FII selling, earnings pressure, sector headwinds and valuation de-rating. Business Standard had also reported earlier weakness after Q3 FY26 consolidated net profit declined 33.19% year-on-year despite revenue growth.
Cost pressure added to the caution. Tijori Finance noted that Kamat’s finance costs grew 88% while revenue grew 19%, and that other income had supported reported profitability. These details made the recovery harder for investors to underwrite. A better Q4 helped, but it did not fully reverse concerns around earlier earnings volatility, smaller scale and finance-cost pressure.
For Kamat, the peace deal removed the external shock, while the stock’s internal concerns stayed in place. Investors were still pricing smaller scale, prior earnings pressure and higher finance costs.
Takeaway
The peace deal improved hospitality sentiment but the recovery stayed selective.
Leela and IHCL recovered faster because geopolitical relief came on top of stronger operating performance. Leela had record FY2025–26 profit, luxury-led pricing power and visible expansion momentum. IHCL had scale, brand depth, stronger earnings and a demand mix that held up better through the conflict
Royal Orchid and Kamat remained below their pre-war levels because investors were still weighing company-specific pressures. Royal Orchid’s expansion pipeline supported future growth, but weaker Q4 profit and cost pressure limited the stock’s rebound. Kamat’s Q4 improvement helped, but earlier de-rating, finance costs and uneven earnings visibility continued to weigh on sentiment.
Investor confidence moved toward hotel companies with cleaner earnings, stronger demand visibility and better pricing power. Stocks still dependent on margin repair, balance sheet comfort or a reversal in prior de-rating lagged. The next phase will depend on whether the US-Iran agreement holds over the 60-day window, and whether hotel companies can convert improved sentiment into sustained earnings momentum.